I’m more interested in understanding things than in profiting from them, but since I read a lot and want a better monitoring of my theses, why not try. I will probably start a mini hedge fund in September 2017 concentrating mainly on long term macro trades with asymmetric payouts. Human beings are naturally biased to the positive which make them less inclined to see and process the negative. As a result events usually have fatter tails than previously anticipated by most. (Watch or read “The Big Short” for a better understanding :)). But also the impact of positive changes – like technology adoptions – are more often than not underestimated by market participants. Still I don’t plan on doing much more since my access to real data is highly limited without proper access to a Bloomberg terminal.
The trade below are my current ideas (summer 2016). These are of course no recommendation.
| Position | Target of AUM | Comment |
| Main Trade Ideas | ||
| USD/CNH long | 100.0% | Yuan short – will be the next Big Short. Long via FX and deep out of the money calls. |
| Long 10Y Italian – Bunds Spread | 100.0% | Long 10Y Bunds vs short 10Y BTPs |
| Risk parity long dollar long gold pair trade | 25.0% | Current vol adjusted pair trade, probably $4 long DXY for $1 long gold, betting on correlation falling apart. |
| Long volatility | 5.0% | Difficult to structure, probably via ETF options? |
| Other Trade Ideas (no tail event bets) | ||
| WTI short | 5.0% | World wide overcapacity, China slowing down and to some extend trend to renewable, energy landscape flattening |
| Silver long | 5.0% | Gold Proxy / Industrial demand |
| Bitcoin | 15.0% |
Trade #1 is Kyle Bass’s and Mark Hart’s top trade (see RVTV interview list here)
Trade #2 is on Hugh Hendry’s list (see here and here (RVTV))
Trade #3 is one of Raoul Pal main trade ideas.
More on the development of these trades can be followed on a daily basis on zerohedge.com and on RVTV.
Gordon Schücker 